What-If and Scope

What-If Forecast

Changing one forecast changes the cumulative error, MAD, and tracking signal.

highlighted = computed this step

Changed Forecast

The what-if changes the fourth forecast to 25.

changed forecast=25\text{changed forecast}=25
Tracking signalThe chart recomputes the base metrics and the what-if metrics.what-if tracking signalMAD 3/2; tracking signal 8/3periodactualforecasterrorcumabs120182222222113132122-12142523242period 1cum 2period 2cum 3period 3cum 2period 4cum 4final cum4MAD3/2tracking signal8/3what-if MAD 1; tracking signal 2

Recompute

The what-if MAD is 1 and the tracking signal is 2.

what-if metrics are recomputed\text{what-if metrics are recomputed}
What-if tracking metricsChanging the last forecast requires recomputing the retrospective metrics.what-if metricsvaluefinal cumulative2MAD1tracking signal2