Honest Bias Scope - Tracking Signal and Forecast Bias, Step by Step

The final lesson states the boundary: deterministic retrospective bias arithmetic only.

highlighted = computed this step

Retrospective Only

The tracking signal scores these past rows only.

\text{retrospective arithmetic only}

Not Control Limits

This book does not set or validate control limits.

\text{control limits are outside scope}

Not Root Cause

A tracking signal does not diagnose a root cause by itself.

\text{root cause remains outside scope}

Honesty Note

This is deterministic retrospective bias arithmetic only. It does not prove future accuracy, set control limits, diagnose a root cause, or replace forecast review.

\text{deterministic retrospective bias arithmetic only}