Readout Predictions

State Probabilities to Counts

shots keep the budget

Start with a prepared two-state budget before any readout mistakes are added. In this pinned example, true probabilities 3/4 and 1/4 over 40 ideal shots make 30 zero-state counts and 10 one-state counts; real shot totals still fluctuate because preparation and sampling are measured, not guaranteed.

True probabilities give ideal expected counts before assignment calibration is applied. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.

highlighted = computed this step

True probabilities are the input budget

The prepared state budget is 3/4 for zero and 1/4 for one.

p0=34,p1=14p_{0}=\frac{3}{4},\quad p_{1}=\frac{1}{4}
True probability budgetThe true probabilities sum to one.3/4true zero1/4true oneideal state budget

A finite shot total gives expected counts

With 40 ideal shots, true probabilities give 30 zero-state counts and 10 one-state counts.

Nshots=40,Ntrue zero=30,Ntrue one=10N_{\text{shots}}=40,\quad N_{\text{true zero}}=30,\quad N_{\text{true one}}=10
Ideal true-state countsThe ideal counts come before calibration is applied.3/4true zero1/4true oneideal state budget