True probabilities give ideal expected counts before assignment calibration is applied. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.

highlighted = computed this step

True probabilities are the input budget

The prepared state budget is 3/4 for zero and 1/4 for one.

p0=34,p1=14p_{0}=\frac{3}{4},\quad p_{1}=\frac{1}{4}
True probability budgetThe true probabilities sum to one.3/4true zero1/4true oneideal state budget

A finite shot total gives expected counts

With 40 ideal shots, true probabilities give 30 zero-state counts and 10 one-state counts.

Nshots=40,Ntrue zero=30,Ntrue one=10N_{\text{shots}}=40,\quad N_{\text{true zero}}=30,\quad N_{\text{true one}}=10
Ideal true-state countsThe ideal counts come before calibration is applied.3/4true zero1/4true oneideal state budget