True probabilities give ideal expected counts before assignment calibration is applied. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.
highlighted = computed this step
True probabilities are the input budget
The prepared state budget is 3/4 for zero and 1/4 for one.
p0=43,p1=41
A finite shot total gives expected counts
With 40 ideal shots, true probabilities give 30 zero-state counts and 10 one-state counts.