Changing the state fraction against a fixed population shows expected count as a checked product. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.

highlighted = computed this step

One state out of eight gives five particles

The moving state has weight 1 out of total weight 8. In a population of 40, the expected moving count is 5.

4018=540\cdot\frac{1}{8}=5
Ensemble weight ledgerFinite state weights produce exact probabilities and expected counts.probprobcountcount

Two states out of eight gives ten particles

Only the moving weight changes to 2. The probability is 1/4, so the expected moving count becomes 10.

4014=1040\cdot\frac{1}{4}=10
Ensemble weight ledgerFinite state weights produce exact probabilities and expected counts.probprobcountcount

Three states out of eight gives fifteen particles

With moving weight 3 out of 8, the expected count rises to 15. Three rows make fraction times population visible.

4038=1540\cdot\frac{3}{8}=15
Ensemble weight ledgerFinite state weights produce exact probabilities and expected counts.probprobcountcount