Signed errors preserve whether actuals landed above or below forecasts.

highlighted = computed this step

Signed Error

Signed error is actual minus forecast; the first error is 2.

error=actualforecast\text{error}=\text{actual}-\text{forecast}
Error rowsEach signed error is actual minus forecast.error rowserrorcumulativeabsoluteperiod one222period two131period three-121period four242

Direction

The third error is -1, so that row was forecast above actual.

sign keeps direction\text{sign keeps direction}
Tracking signalThe chart recomputes errors, cumulative errors, MAD, and the tracking signal.tracking signal and forecast biasMAD 3/2; tracking signal 8/3periodactualforecasterrorcumabs120182222222113132122-12142523242period 1cum 2period 2cum 3period 3cum 2period 4cum 4final cum4MAD3/2tracking signal8/3what-if MAD 1; tracking signal 2