In a two-state ensemble the lower-energy state carries the larger Boltzmann weight, so at low enough temperature its normalized probability can dominate the whole population. That dominance is exact only for stated weights, the two listed states, fixed temperature/model, and equilibrium sampling. Real systems add preparation bias, finite sampling, calibration, degeneracy, and uncertainty.
A lower state can dominate when its explicit weight is larger. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.
highlighted = computed this step
Weights set the population fractions
The lower state has three shares and the upper state has one share.
Plower=43,Pupper=41
The upper fraction is one quarter
The upper-state population is one quarter of the finite ledger.