MAD and MSE

MSE

MSE averages squared miss sizes.

highlighted = computed this step

Squared Errors

Squaring makes the larger miss stand out more.

squared error=error×error\text{squared error}=\text{error}\times\text{error}
Absolute and squared errorsThe table exposes each absolute and squared error before averaging.absolute and squared errorserrorabsolutesquaredperiod one111period two111period three-339period four111

Large Square

The largest squared error is 9.

max⁡squared error=9\max \text{squared error}=9
Forecast error metricsThe chart pairs row-level error bars with exact summary metrics.MAD and MSEMAD 3/2; MSE 3; MAPE 7/48periodactualforecasterrorabssquared1109111212111113912-33941514111period 1abs error 1period 2abs error 1period 3abs error 3period 4abs error 1sum error0MAD3/2MSE3MAPE7/48what-if MAD 1; MSE 1; MAPE 13/144

MSE Value

The exact MSE is 3.

MSE=3\text{MSE}=3
Summary metricsThe table shows signed sum, MAD, MSE, and MAPE.summary metricsvaluesum error0MAD3/2MSE3MAPE7/48