Actuals, Forecasts, and Errors

Actual and Forecast

Forecast error metrics start with fixed held-out actual and forecast rows.

highlighted = computed this step

Held-Out Row

A held-out row has actual 10 and forecast 9.

actual and forecast are fixed inputs\text{actual and forecast are fixed inputs}
Held-out rowsThe deterministic example starts with actual and forecast values.actual and forecast rowsactualforecastperiod one109period two1211period three912period four1514

Not Future Proof

These rows are used to score a forecast, not to prove future accuracy.

score fixed rows before making claims\text{score fixed rows before making claims}
Held-out rowsThe deterministic example starts with actual and forecast values.actual and forecast rowsactualforecastperiod one109period two1211period three912period four1514