Ensemble Counts

Weights Become Probabilities

Finite state weights make exact probabilities without sampling. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.

highlighted = computed this step

Count state weights first

The two state weights are 2 and 6, so the total weight is 8.

2+6=82+6=8
Ensemble weight ledgerFinite state weights produce exact probabilities and expected counts.probprobcountcount

Weights become exact probabilities

The probabilities are 1/4 and 3/4; no random draw is used.

2/8=14,6/8=342/8=\frac{1}{4},\quad6/8=\frac{3}{4}
Ensemble weight ledgerFinite state weights produce exact probabilities and expected counts.probprobcountcount