Active Spread and Bias

Bias Fraction Is a Count Ratio

The bias fraction is derived from integer run counts before it is interpreted. Exact arithmetic here means exact results for the stated model inputs; measured inputs still carry uncertainty and significant-figure limits.

highlighted = computed this step

Total runs set the denominator

Forward plus backward runs give 8 total runs.

5+3=85+3=8
Biased run ledgerForward minus backward runs moves the mean in this count model.net displacement531/4

Excess divided by total gives bias fraction

The count bias is two out of eight, or 1/4

2/8=142/8=\frac{1}{4}
Biased run ledgerForward minus backward runs moves the mean in this count model.net displacement531/4